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Articles/Essays
Articles/Essays
1 Japan-South Korea Tensions 2019:
A Singaporean View
KB Teo
SYNOPSIS
The current Japan-South Korea tensions are related to historical grievances
and trade conflicts. There are no winners in a trade war.
Seoul, wisely, has a keen interest to end the dispute as soon as possible.
and trade conflicts. There are no winners in a trade war.
Seoul, wisely, has a keen interest to end the dispute as soon as possible.
COMMENTARY
The recent Japan-South Korea tensions arose due to a loss of trust over an
October 2018 South Korean Supreme Court ruling ordering three Japanese firms
to compensate South Korean "comfort women"
for “forced labour” (sexual slavery) during World War Two.
These firms are Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Nippon Steel, and the
Nachi-Fujikoshi Corporation. Tokyo strongly condemned the court ruling.
In 1965 when Japan and South Korea normalized their relations,
Tokyo paid US$2.4 trillion in loans and aid to settle the compensation issue.
But Seoul argued that individuals had the right to seek justice on their own.
October 2018 South Korean Supreme Court ruling ordering three Japanese firms
to compensate South Korean "comfort women"
for “forced labour” (sexual slavery) during World War Two.
These firms are Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Nippon Steel, and the
Nachi-Fujikoshi Corporation. Tokyo strongly condemned the court ruling.
In 1965 when Japan and South Korea normalized their relations,
Tokyo paid US$2.4 trillion in loans and aid to settle the compensation issue.
But Seoul argued that individuals had the right to seek justice on their own.
In August 2019, President Moon Jae-in and US Defense Secretary Mark Esper
agreed to maintain the 2016 Seoul-Tokyo intelligence-sharing pact.
This shares vital information on North Korea’s nuclear missile program.
It was renewed by South Korea on 23 November 2019, just six hours before it
expired.
agreed to maintain the 2016 Seoul-Tokyo intelligence-sharing pact.
This shares vital information on North Korea’s nuclear missile program.
It was renewed by South Korea on 23 November 2019, just six hours before it
expired.
In August 2019 South Korea decided to end it, raising tensions.
In July 2019, Japan had imposed export controls on materials for ROK's
semiconductor industry. Tokyo said that these strategic materials were illegally sent to North Korea. The Korea Economic Research Institute said a 30% curb on components from Japan would result in a US$35 billion loss to South Korea's economy.
In July 2019, Japan had imposed export controls on materials for ROK's
semiconductor industry. Tokyo said that these strategic materials were illegally sent to North Korea. The Korea Economic Research Institute said a 30% curb on components from Japan would result in a US$35 billion loss to South Korea's economy.
Japan and South Korea have enjoyed rapid growth.
Japan is the world’s third-largest economy, with a GDP per capita of US$39,286. South Korea is the world’s 11th largest economy. Over the past twenty years, South Korea has caught up with Japan, with a GDP per capita of US$31,362. On the people-to-people level, more South Koreans visit Japan than any other nation except for China.
Japan is the world’s third-largest economy, with a GDP per capita of US$39,286. South Korea is the world’s 11th largest economy. Over the past twenty years, South Korea has caught up with Japan, with a GDP per capita of US$31,362. On the people-to-people level, more South Koreans visit Japan than any other nation except for China.
Japan and South Korea have a bitter territorial dispute over the
Takeshima/Dokdo islands in the East Sea. South Korea complained to the
WTO and lobbied ASEAN. Few countries, as expected, are keen to get involved.
Japan and South Korea are both ASEAN’s major trading partners.
In November 2018, President Moon unveiled a new “Southern Policy” aimed at
deepening ties with ASEAN. In 2018, ASEAN was South Korea’s second-largest
trading partner, after China. Japan is Singapore’s 5th-largest trading partner,
after China, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the US.
PM Lee Hsien Loong visited the ROK from 22-24 November 2019 to boost
bilateral ties. He held talks with President Moon.
Takeshima/Dokdo islands in the East Sea. South Korea complained to the
WTO and lobbied ASEAN. Few countries, as expected, are keen to get involved.
Japan and South Korea are both ASEAN’s major trading partners.
In November 2018, President Moon unveiled a new “Southern Policy” aimed at
deepening ties with ASEAN. In 2018, ASEAN was South Korea’s second-largest
trading partner, after China. Japan is Singapore’s 5th-largest trading partner,
after China, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the US.
PM Lee Hsien Loong visited the ROK from 22-24 November 2019 to boost
bilateral ties. He held talks with President Moon.
South Korea's economic problems
Since 2001, South Korea is Japan's third-largest trading partner. In 2018, their bilateral trade hit a record US$89 billion. In 2018, Japan had a US$24 billion trade surplus with South Korea. Japan had huge investments of US$4.9 billion (2018) in South Korea compared with Seoul’s investments of US$2 billion in Japan. Seoul has much to lose if the tensions persist.
President Moon strongly encouraged South Korean firms to develop the ability
to produce the goods restricted by Japan. He accused Japan of trying to destroy
South Korea’s export-led economy.
But history is a big obstacle: an estimated 75% of Japanese and South Koreans
mistrust one another.
to produce the goods restricted by Japan. He accused Japan of trying to destroy
South Korea’s export-led economy.
But history is a big obstacle: an estimated 75% of Japanese and South Koreans
mistrust one another.
Japan and South Korea have major differences in East Asian affairs.
On North Korean denuclearisation, President Moon supports the easing of
sanctions. He called for Korean Reunification by 2045. But PM Shinzo Abe insists on maintaining a tough policy unless Pyongyang first denuclearized. The result is an impasse. Since 2004, China has overtaken the US and Japan to become South Korea's largest trading partner. Japan and South Korea’s willingness to achieve a compromise is due to the cost of their disputes. Both economies are struggling. Japan's government has lowered its own growth forecast. South Korea’s growth is also weaker.
On North Korean denuclearisation, President Moon supports the easing of
sanctions. He called for Korean Reunification by 2045. But PM Shinzo Abe insists on maintaining a tough policy unless Pyongyang first denuclearized. The result is an impasse. Since 2004, China has overtaken the US and Japan to become South Korea's largest trading partner. Japan and South Korea’s willingness to achieve a compromise is due to the cost of their disputes. Both economies are struggling. Japan's government has lowered its own growth forecast. South Korea’s growth is also weaker.
The US is caught in a dilemma. South Korea and Japan are treaty allies of
Washington. American mediation efforts have so far failed.
The US fear is that the Japan-South Korea dispute could lead to a weaker front against North Korea and China. The Inter-Korean Dialogue is making good progress. President Moon and Chairman Kim Jong-Un have already met several times. The latest developments indicate that Tokyo and Seoul are keen to de-escalate tensions. In May 2019, Japan and South Korea participated in US-led Pacific naval exercises. In October 2019, PM Abe met South Korean PM Lee Nak-Yon to improve ties.
Washington. American mediation efforts have so far failed.
The US fear is that the Japan-South Korea dispute could lead to a weaker front against North Korea and China. The Inter-Korean Dialogue is making good progress. President Moon and Chairman Kim Jong-Un have already met several times. The latest developments indicate that Tokyo and Seoul are keen to de-escalate tensions. In May 2019, Japan and South Korea participated in US-led Pacific naval exercises. In October 2019, PM Abe met South Korean PM Lee Nak-Yon to improve ties.
Implications
For Singapore, Japan and South Korea are major trading partners.
Japan is Singapore’s 5th-largest trading partner, while South Korea is the 7th. Japan and South Korea are ASEAN’s largest trading partner, after China.
Japan is Singapore’s 5th-largest trading partner, while South Korea is the 7th. Japan and South Korea are ASEAN’s largest trading partner, after China.
As G7 industrialised states, Japan and South Korea are vital to the health
of the global economy. Despite their current differences, the fundamentals of
Japan-South Korea relations are sound. They share vital common interests
in helping to maintain peace and prosperity in East Asia.
South Korean chaebols are keen to end the tensions with Japan.
It is unlikely that the Japan-ROK tensions will deepen.
The urgent and vital process of Japan-South Korea reconciliation has started.
of the global economy. Despite their current differences, the fundamentals of
Japan-South Korea relations are sound. They share vital common interests
in helping to maintain peace and prosperity in East Asia.
South Korean chaebols are keen to end the tensions with Japan.
It is unlikely that the Japan-ROK tensions will deepen.
The urgent and vital process of Japan-South Korea reconciliation has started.
4
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KB Teo is a former diplomat with the Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
He obtained a Masters’ degree (IR) from the Australian National University.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Malaysia’s Succession Struggle 2019
KB Teo
Malaysian politics is in turmoil. In November 2019, factional infighting within the
Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) broke out. The PKR is the second largest component
of the ruling multiethnic Pakatan Harapan (PH) (Coalition of Hope),
led by PM Mahathir, 94.
It also includes the Chinese-based Democratic Action Party led by Lim Kit Siang
and his son, Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng. The latter has corruption charges
pending against him in relation to the purchase of a bungalow in Penang. The prosecution, controlled by the Attorney General, dropped the charges.
Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) broke out. The PKR is the second largest component
of the ruling multiethnic Pakatan Harapan (PH) (Coalition of Hope),
led by PM Mahathir, 94.
It also includes the Chinese-based Democratic Action Party led by Lim Kit Siang
and his son, Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng. The latter has corruption charges
pending against him in relation to the purchase of a bungalow in Penang. The prosecution, controlled by the Attorney General, dropped the charges.
The PH coalition surprisingly won the May 2018 Malaysian General Elections (GE14), ousting the corrupt Barisan Nasional (BN) administration of Najib Razak.
Anwar Ibrahim, 72 (leader, PKR), was challenged by his deputy, Azmin Ali, 55.
Azmin is very ambitious. He has the support of Mahathir. There was apparently
a “promise”made by Mahathir to make way for Anwar to become PM midway
through HP’s term of office. Mahathir has since denied making such a promise.
Reports suggest that Mahathir may have political ambitions for his son, Muhkriz.
Azmin is very ambitious. He has the support of Mahathir. There was apparently
a “promise”made by Mahathir to make way for Anwar to become PM midway
through HP’s term of office. Mahathir has since denied making such a promise.
Reports suggest that Mahathir may have political ambitions for his son, Muhkriz.
The PKR factional infighting has negative results for the HP coalition. In June 2019, it lost decisively in the Tanjung Piai by-election to UMNO.
UMNO deputy president Mohamad Hasan voiced concern that PKR leaders
continue to quarrel over the prime minister’s post. Mohamad said it was
unfortunate that there had been no discussions on economic issues including
the ringgit’s drop and rising debt. Billions of ringgit in foreign investment has left
Malaysia’s Stock Exchange. Is performance is among the worst in the world this
year. The amount of foreign investment which left Malaysia in 2019 was more
than RM10 billion.
continue to quarrel over the prime minister’s post. Mohamad said it was
unfortunate that there had been no discussions on economic issues including
the ringgit’s drop and rising debt. Billions of ringgit in foreign investment has left
Malaysia’s Stock Exchange. Is performance is among the worst in the world this
year. The amount of foreign investment which left Malaysia in 2019 was more
than RM10 billion.
Anti-corruption promises lay at the heart of Pakatan Harapan's 2018 win.
A priority is its pledge to get to the bottom of the 1MDB scandal.
As much as US$4.5 billion went missing. Jho Low, a financier accused of
orchestrating the theft, remains at large. In October 2018 the U.S. Department
of Justice announced that he had agreed to forfeit nearly US$1 billion in assets
allegedly bought with the fund's money. Instead, Malaysia's attention has shifted
to former Prime Minister Najib, who has plead not guilty to dozens of charges
ranging from money laundering to abuse of power.
A priority is its pledge to get to the bottom of the 1MDB scandal.
As much as US$4.5 billion went missing. Jho Low, a financier accused of
orchestrating the theft, remains at large. In October 2018 the U.S. Department
of Justice announced that he had agreed to forfeit nearly US$1 billion in assets
allegedly bought with the fund's money. Instead, Malaysia's attention has shifted
to former Prime Minister Najib, who has plead not guilty to dozens of charges
ranging from money laundering to abuse of power.
The new Mahathir administration faces many political challenges.
However, there are three key issues that the administration must address
before the next general election in 2023. These are the Malay Agenda/Bumiputra
Policy; political Islam; and the timeline for transition of power from Mahathir to
Anwar Ibrahim.
However, there are three key issues that the administration must address
before the next general election in 2023. These are the Malay Agenda/Bumiputra
Policy; political Islam; and the timeline for transition of power from Mahathir to
Anwar Ibrahim.
Malaysia’s political system is driven by ethnic and religious tensions.
The HP embraces Ketuanan Islam (Islamic supremacy) and
Ketuanan Melayu (Malay Supremacy).
The HP embraces Ketuanan Islam (Islamic supremacy) and
Ketuanan Melayu (Malay Supremacy).
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
KB Teo is a former diplomat with the Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He also attended the UN General Assembly as part of the MFA delegation.
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Myanmar and Rohingyas:
Brutal Treatment or Genocide?
KB Teo
Since 2016, the Myanmese military (Tatmadaw) has conducted a
violent campaign to force the Muslim Rohingyas to neighbouring
Bangladesh. Myanmar is a Buddhist nation. Ten thousand
Rohingyas have already been killed, especially in Rakhine state
(northwestern Myanmar). Rohingyas have stayed there for at
least the past three hundred years. They account for 4.3% of
multi-ethnic Myanmar’s population.
Myanmar has 135 different ethnic groups.
violent campaign to force the Muslim Rohingyas to neighbouring
Bangladesh. Myanmar is a Buddhist nation. Ten thousand
Rohingyas have already been killed, especially in Rakhine state
(northwestern Myanmar). Rohingyas have stayed there for at
least the past three hundred years. They account for 4.3% of
multi-ethnic Myanmar’s population.
Myanmar has 135 different ethnic groups.
Myanmar state counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi has refused to condemn the military crackdown.
She is a pro-democracy icon and Nobel laureate. From 1989 to 2010, she was under house arrest
by the military.
She is a pro-democracy icon and Nobel laureate. From 1989 to 2010, she was under house arrest
by the military.
The UN Human Rights Commission (UNHRC) has strongly condemned Myanmar for the
Rohingya killings, calling it “ethnic cleansing” and genocide.
It claimed that Myanmar had violated the 1948 Geneva Convention against Genocide.
In early December 2019, Aung San Suu Kyi arrived at the ICJ (the Hague) to defend
Myanmar’s human rights record and charges of persecuting the Rohingyas.
Many Western analysts were unpleasantly surprised. They did not expect the democracy icon to
defend the miitary’s crackdown against the Rohingyas.
In November 2020, Myanmar is scheduled to hold nation-wide General Elections.
Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) is looking to win more parliamentary seats.
Rohingya killings, calling it “ethnic cleansing” and genocide.
It claimed that Myanmar had violated the 1948 Geneva Convention against Genocide.
In early December 2019, Aung San Suu Kyi arrived at the ICJ (the Hague) to defend
Myanmar’s human rights record and charges of persecuting the Rohingyas.
Many Western analysts were unpleasantly surprised. They did not expect the democracy icon to
defend the miitary’s crackdown against the Rohingyas.
In November 2020, Myanmar is scheduled to hold nation-wide General Elections.
Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) is looking to win more parliamentary seats.
In foreign policy, Myanmar has been deepening economic and financial ties with China.
Yangon has responded positively to President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative and the
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Both China and Myanmar share the same view regarding
the rising threat of militant radical Islam in Asia. Beijing has a very coherent policy towards
Myanmar.
Yangon has responded positively to President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative and the
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Both China and Myanmar share the same view regarding
the rising threat of militant radical Islam in Asia. Beijing has a very coherent policy towards
Myanmar.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
KB Teo is a former diplomat with the Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
He also attended the UN General Assembly as part of the MFA delegation.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
He also attended the UN General Assembly as part of the MFA delegation.
Monday, 9 December 2019
Sunday, 8 December 2019
Christmas
Christmas
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeXYhY-Mekk
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Top 56 Christmas Songs and Carols with Lyrics 🎅
Saturday, 7 December 2019
Japan-South Korea Tensions 2019:
A Singaporean View
KB Teo
SYNOPSIS
The current Japan-South Korea tensions are related to historical grievances and trade conflicts. There are no winners in a trade war. Seoul, wisely, has a keen interest to end the dispute as soon as possible.
COMMENTARY
The recent Japan-South Korea tensions arose due to a loss of trust over an October 2018 South Korean Supreme Court ruling ordering three Japanese firms to compensate South Korean "comfort women" for “forced labour” (sexual slavery) during World War Two. These firms are Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Nippon Steel, and the Nachi-Fujikoshi Corporation. Tokyo strongly condemned the court ruling. In 1965 when Japan and South Korea normalized their relations, Tokyo paid US$2.4 trillion in loans and aid to settle the compensation issue. But Seoul argued that individuals had the right to seek justice on their own.
In August 2019, President Moon Jae-in and US Defense Secretary Mark Esper agreed to maintain the 2016 Seoul-Tokyo intelligence-sharing pact. This shares vital information on North Korea’s nuclear missile program. It was renewed by South Korea on 23 November 2019, just six hours before it expired.
In August 2019 South Korea decided to end it, raising tensions. In July 2019, Japan had imposed export controls on materials for ROK's semiconductor industry. Tokyo said that these strategic materials were illegally sent to North Korea. The Korea Economic Research Institute said a 30% curb on components from Japan would result in a US$35 billion loss to South Korea's economy.
Japan and South Korea have enjoyed rapid growth. Japan is the world’s third-largest economy, with a GDP per capita of US$39,286. South Korea is the world’s 11th largest economy. Over the past twenty years, South Korea has caught up with Japan, with a GDP per capita of US$31,362. On the people-to-people level, more South Koreans visit Japan than any other nation except for China.
Japan and South Korea have a bitter territorial dispute over the Takeshima/Dokdo islands in the East Sea. South Korea complained to the WTO and lobbied ASEAN. Few countries, as expected, are keen to get involved. Japan and South Korea are both ASEAN’s major trading partners. In November 2018, President Moon unveiled a new “Southern Policy” aimed at deepening ties with ASEAN. In 2018, ASEAN was South Korea’s second-largest trading partner, after China. Japan is Singapore’s 5th-largest trading partner, after China, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the US. PM Lee Hsien Loong visited the ROK from 22-24 November 2019 to boost bilateral ties. He held talks with President Moon.
South Korea's economic problems
Since 2001, South Korea is Japan's third-largest trading partner. In 2018, their bilateral trade hit a record US$89 billion. In 2018, Japan had a US$24 billion trade surplus with South Korea. Japan had huge investments of US$4.9 billion (2018) in South Korea compared with Seoul’s investments of US$2 billion in Japan. Seoul has much to lose if the tensions persist.
President Moon strongly encouraged South Korean firms to develop the ability to produce the goods restricted by Japan. He accused Japan of trying to destroy South Korea’s export-led economy. But history is a big obstacle: an estimated 75% of Japanese and South Koreans mistrust one another.
Japan and South Korea have major differences in East Asian affairs. On North Korean denuclearisation, President Moon supports the easing of sanctions. He called for Korean Reunification by 2045. But PM Shinzo Abe insists on maintaining a tough policy unless Pyongyang first denuclearized. The result is an impasse. Since 2004, China has overtaken the US and Japan to become South Korea's largest trading partner. Japan and South Korea’s willingness to achieve a compromise is due to the cost of their disputes. Both economies are struggling. Japan's government has lowered its own growth forecast. South Korea’s growth is also weaker.
The US is caught in a dilemma. South Korea and Japan are treaty allies of Washington. American mediation efforts have so far failed. The US fear is that the Japan-South Korea dispute could lead to a weaker front against North Korea and China. The Inter-Korean Dialogue is making good progress. President Moon and Chairman Kim Jong-Un have already met several times. The latest developments indicate that Tokyo and Seoul are keen to de-escalate tensions. In May 2019, Japan and South Korea participated in US-led Pacific naval exercises. In October 2019, PM Abe met South Korean PM Lee Nak-Yon to improve ties.
Implications
For Singapore, Japan and South Korea are major trading partners. Japan is Singapore’s 5th-largest trading partner, while South Korea is the 7th. Japan and South Korea are ASEAN’s largest trading partner, after China.
As G7 industrialised states, Japan and South Korea are vital to the health of the global economy. Despite their current differences, the fundamentals of Japan-South Korea relations are sound. They share vital common interests in helping to maintain peace and prosperity in East Asia. South Korean chaebols are keen to end the tensions with Japan. It is unlikely that the Japan-ROK tensions will deepen. The urgent and vital process of Japan-South Korea reconciliation has started.
4
—————————————————————————————————
KB Teo is a former diplomat with the Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He obtained a Masters’ degree (IR) from the Australian National University.
ASEAN: Towards a
Security Community?
KB Teo
SYNOPSIS
The EU is the only regional organisation to develop into a Security Community. ASEAN is steadily growing into one. To achieve regional political integration, ASEAN’s strategy is to promote strong economic growth and actively engage all the Great Powers.
COMMENTARY
Sixteen years ago, ASEAN declared its goal of establishing a regional Security Community. The American political scientist Karl Deutsch defined a Security Community as one in which the members do not wage war against one another. In August 1967, ASEAN was established to promote regional stability and prosperity. Deutsch’s idea of a “Security Community” was adopted by Indonesia. Jakarta’s proposal for an “ASEAN Security Community” was incorporated in the 2003 Bali Concord II Declaration. How successful has ASEAN been in achieving this goal?
ASEAN is steadily growing into a Security Community. There are two main reasons. One, ASEAN’s focus on maintaining internal unity and promoting growth. Two, ASEAN uses various dialogue mechanisms to actively engage the Great Powers. This method enhances ASEAN's ability to shape the regional security landscape and its importance and relevance to the Great Powers.
1
Unity and Growth
ASEAN leaders see themselves as the main actors in shaping regional security, not the external Great Powers. They follow the adage “Southeast Asia for Southeast Asians”. It is called “ASEAN Centrality”. ASEAN’s 650 million consumers make it very attractive for foreign investment. The EU has the advantages of a common Christianity, the English language, and contiguous borders. In contrast, ASEAN is very diverse in terms of race, language, religion, and different levels of economic development and wealth. The ASEAN states are also separated by wide bodies of waters. This makes regional political integration relatively more difficult.
Today, there is little chance of an intra-ASEAN war. In December 1978, Vietnam invaded Cambodia to oust the genocidal Pol Pot regime. Forty years have passed. There have been no wars in Southeast Asia. ASEAN is continuing to enjoy its “long peace”. War is seen by the ASEAN elites as obsolete and a sun-set industry. Its leaders have repeatedly stated that their main goal is boosting intra-ASEAN trade and increase employment and growth. Regional integration requires shared values and norms to facilitate win-win cooperation. Unlike Western Europe, Southeast Asia before 1967 had very little sense of common bonding. The very idea of “Southeast Asia” itself is quite recent. Southeast Asia was disparate, unstable, and poor. It was susceptible to many intra-regional political and military conflicts.
Stability and Growth
Over the next decade, the ASEAN economies are projected to grow at 4.1% annually. The region’s GDP would double to US$5 trillion. This would represent 5% of global GDP, an admirable achievement for a grouping of small and medium-sized states.
2
At the June 2019 34th ASEAN Summit in Bangkok, PM Mahathir raised the issue of sluggish intra-ASEAN trade. It forms only 25% of their global trade compared with 50% for the EU and North America. Between 2002 and 2017, intra-ASEAN trade increased by only 2%. The pathway to boost intra-ASEAN trade is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). ASEAN would be signing the RCEP in 2020, minus India, to boost intra-ASEAN and Indo-Pacific trade.
Defensive Military Modernisation
Over the past decade, ASEAN has been boosting its military capabilities amid the escalating China-US strategic rivalry. The ASEAN states want to develop strong local defence industries. ASEAN has repeatedly stated it does not want to choose sides. It wants cordial and profitable relations with both superpowers. Cambodia is strengthening its military power with support from China. The Royal Thai Navy has bought submarines from China. Beijing has sold sophisticated weaponry to the Philippines. President Duterte is revamping Philippine foreign policy to forge closer financial and economic ties with Beijing. Duterte has shown a keen interest in President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Infrastructure initiative. Beijing is rapidly making strong inroads in establishing strong ties with the ASEAN states. China and ASEAN are collaborating closely on a peaceful Code of Conduct on the South China Sea, where there are rival claimants.
In the last few years, ASEAN’s military spending has doubled. The reasons include financial self-sufficiency, expansion of capabilities, and the growth of local defence industries. ASEAN is responding to threats like terrorism, piracy, and cybersecurity. Not surprisingly, ASEAN's investment in developing air and naval power has risen.
3
Indonesia faces the internal challenges of terrorism and religious violence. Over the past decade, Indonesia’s and Thailand’s military budget has risen by 10% annually. Vietnam’s arms import surged seven-fold. Since 2016, Thailand has focussed on buying advanced weaponry to counter the Muslim insurgency in its three southern provinces. The Philippines has bought new powerful weaponry from China. Myanmar, faced with the Muslim Rohingya issue, has also embarked on an arms buildup. Malaysia and Singapore are defence partners in the Five Power Defence Arrangement. They conduct an annual military exercise called “Exercise Bersama Lima”.
Engagement with Great Powers
ASEAN engages the Great Powers through its dialogue mechanisms like the ASEAN Regional Forum, ASEAN Plus Three, ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meetings, Dialogue Partners' process, and the East Asia Summit. These mechanisms strengthen ASEAN-Great Power relations. After fifty-two years, ASEAN remains vibrant. There is virtually no chance of the ASEAN states waging war against each other. They focus on maintaining internal stability and promoting economic growth. ASEAN’s remarkable growth has been aptly termed by Kishore Mahbubani and Jeffery Sng as a “miracle”. ASEAN’s military modernisation is basically defensive. ASEAN actively engages the Great Powers to enhance its relevance. An ASEAN Security Community matters for a stable and prosperous Southeast Asia.
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KB Teo is a former diplomat with the Singapore MFA who had covered Southeast Asia, Egypt, as well as the East Europe/Soviet desks. He had also attended the UN General Assembly as part of the MFA delegation.
North Korea: Why it is
Unlikely to Denuclearise
KB Teo
After two summits with Trump, there are reasons to believe that North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-Un is having the last laugh on the American president. It is unlikely that Kim will de-nuclearise as Trump wants. There are three factors: the persistence of the US threat to North Korea's survival; Pyongyang's failure to keep its promises to denuclearise; and the serious weakening of North Korea by more than three decades of US economic sanctions.
The first factor is what Pyongyang regards as the persistence of the US threat to North Korea's survival. The US has a string of military bases in East Asia. Washington's targets are North Korea and China. The US also has 30,000 troops in South Korea under the September 1953 ROK-US Mutual Defence Treaty. Additionally, under the October 1951 Japan-US Mutual Security Treaty, the US stations 80,000 troops in Okinawa. In April 2019, Kim Jong Un, 36 years old, said that Pyongyang must deliver "serious blows" to those imposing economic sanctions. It was the first time that Kim stated North Korea's position after the Hanoi Summit's collapse in February 2019. Pyongyang's commitment to the "denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula" includes "eliminating the US nuclear threat to North Korea". North Korea says the US threat has forced it to strengthen its defences: Pyongyang spends an estimated 25% of its GDP on the military. In contrast, most states spend about 5%.
Kim's understanding of "denuclearisation" is different from that of President Trump. The US wants the "Complete, Irreversible, Verifiable, Disarmament" of Pyongyang's nuclear arsenal, held under UN auspices. Kim warned in his January 2019 New Year Day's address that he would change course if Washington continued its sanctions. In July 2019, North Korea again tested short-range missiles which can hit Japan and South Korea. Instead of denuclearisation, Kim is enhancing his nuclear capability.
The second factor is that North Korea had promised many times over the past 25 years to denuclearise but did not carry them out. Nuclear weapons are North Korea's only bargaining chip. Undermining the US-ROK Security Alliance would sow doubt that Washington would come to the defence of Japan and the ROK. It would show that North Korea is not easily toppled by outside powers, unlike Libya (Gaddafi), Iraq (Saddam Hussein), or the Balkans (Slobodan Milosevic). Third, Kim wants faster economic growth for North Korea. Between 2010 and 2016, the economy stagnated at 0.5% annual growth. In 2018, the North Korean economy shrank 4.1%, the slowest growth in 20 years. With a GDP per capita of less than US$2,000 per annum, North Korea is one of the poorest countries on earth. An estimated 20% of North Korean children are malnourished. Faster economic growth would boost Kim's political legitimacy.
The China-North Korea relationship has been marked by ups and downs. President Xi Jinping made his first official visit to North Korea in June 2019, ahead of the G20 Osaka Summit. It restored warmer Sino-North Korean relations. The Korean Peninsula has become an intense diplomatic battleground in the strategic rivalry between Beijing and Washington. Beijing supports a stable and peaceful North Korea. But China is ambivalent about a nuclear-armed North Korea: A reunified Korea would mean the presence of US troops just outside China's border. This is unacceptable to Beijing. Kim is seeking more Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investments from China. But Kim is careful not to become too dependent on Beijing. Kim visited Russia in April 2019. Kim showed his desire to lessen his unhealthy dependence on Beijing. For Putin, it showed that a resolution of the North Korean issue requires the Kremlin's participation. Kim is concerned with the poor state of the North Korean economy. He is considering setting up South Korean-style industrial conglomerates, or 'chaebols'. With more capitalist-style economic reforms, North Korea could become the next "Asian tiger economy'.
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KB Teo is a former diplomat with the Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He attended the UN General Assembly as part of the MFA delegation.
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