Hong Kong Turmoil 2019:

A Dismal Future?

KB Teo

SYNOPSIS

There are three main causes.  One, fear over Beijing's growing control. Two, erosion of its “freedoms".   Three, the high costs of living. Many Hong Kongers cannot afford decent housing.

COMMENTARY

Under the 30 June 1997, China-UK Handover Agreement, Beijing promised to maintain Hong Kong's "autonomy" for 50 years:  freedom of speech and assembly. Today, Hong Kong is less important to China. In 1997, Hong Kong accounted for 20% of China's GDP. The proportion now is 5%. Shenzhen is fast becoming the high-tech centre of the world.  In 1997, Hong Kong handled 50% of China's foreign trade. Today, it is only 12%. In 1997, Hong Kong's per-capita income was 35 times higher than China's; now, it is just 5 times higher. As China's economy continues to expand,  it will leave Hong Kong behind. There is no chance that Beijing will accept the demands of the protestors: universal suffrage and democratic elections. Beijing called the protestors "rioters" engaged in a “colour revolution”.  

In September 2019, they called on President Trump to “liberate” Hong Kong. Their real goal is an independent Hong Kong.  Beijing reiterated that it would crush any attempt at secession. Beijing said it would crush dissent. During a 2017 visit, President Xi Jinping warned that challenges from Hong Kong would not be tolerated.  In July 2019, the Chinese military warned that it could be deployed to maintain social order. 

In April 2019  Hong Kong chief executive Carrie Lam introduced the Extradition Bill.  It would allow for the transfer of criminals to China to face justice. Many Hongkongers say they do not trust China's politicised judicial system.  

What are Beijing's options?  First, the use of force can be ruled out completely.  China would not want a repeat of the June 1989 Tiananmen Square protests.  With a bitter trade war with the US, China would not want to intervene directly in Hong Kong.  It has started to use terms like “terrorism”, and “secession” to refer to the violence. This is setting the stage for a more forceful response.  Second, Beijing would want Carrie Lam to stay on to clean up the mess. From Beijing's viewpoint, it is vital to keep the pro-establishment camp in Hong Kong united.  Third, give strong support to the Hong Kong police to maintain peace and stability. This includes encouraging more ordinary Hongkongers to publicly show patriotic support for the mainland.

Four, quickly address the grievances of Hong Kongers.  Outwardly, Hong Kong is prosperous, with a big number of billionaires.  An example is Li Ka-Shing. He is one of the richest men in the world, with a personal wealth of US$29.4 billion.  Others are the Kwok brothers (property), Cheng Yu-Tung (infrastructure), Liu Chee-Woo (entertainment), Stanley Ho (casinos), and the Shaw brothers (entertainment). 

The majority of Hongkongers are poor.  Hong Kong has the worst income-wealth inequality in the world. Poverty in Hong Kong is at  20%. Many Hongkongers cannot afford decent housing. Hong Kong faces a public housing crisis. It is only 15% in Hong Kong compared with 80% in Singapore. The waiting time for public housing is more than 5 years. Many survive in tiny cubicles.  This situation has fueled the anger of many Hongkongers. Hong Kong’s economy is badly hit by the turmoil. Business and tourism are sharply down. Recession looms despite an HK$24 billion August 2019 economic package. For 2019, the forecast is for zero growth, the worst on record.  Carrie Lam has started a dialogue on how to resolve the crisis. The West is very critical of Beijing’s attempt to gain greater control over Hong Kong. Beijing accused them of being the "black hands". Beijing warned the US “to stop playing with fire”, or get burnt.     

Implications

Hong Kong’s turmoil is in its sixth month.  Carrie Lam’s government needs to focus on the causes of the turmoil and tackle wealth inequality.  If not, Hong Kong faces a dismal future.

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KB Teo is a former diplomat with the Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs who had covered Southeast Asia, Egypt as well as the Eastern Europe/Soviet desks. He had also attended the UN General Assembly as part of the MFA delegation.