Xi-Modi 2019 Summit: 

Start of a New Era?

KB Teo

SYNOPSIS

In the 1950s, when China-India ties were close, New Delhi was among the first states to recognise Mao Zedong’s new China. All this changed with the 1962 border war. The recent Xi-Modi summit in India was aimed at ushering in a new prosperous “Chindia” century. Does it mark the start of a new era in Sino-Indian cooperation?

COMMENTARY

THE 1950s were the heyday of Sino-Indian relations. In June 1954, Premier Zhou En-Lai visited New Delhi. China and India signed a joint statement on the five principles of peaceful coexistence. This included respect for territorial integrity, non-interference in internal affairs, and peaceful coexistence. Their 1950s entente was epitomised by the popular Hindi slogan “Hindi Chini Bhai-Bhai” (“Indians/Chinese are brothers”).

Border Wars

China and India share a 4,000 km long border. The October 1962 border war was caused by their territorial dispute over the Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh regions. Aksai Chin lies between the Indian state of Kashmir and China’s Tibet province. China conducts its nuclear testing at Lop Nor, Xinjiang. They also clashed at the Doklam plateau (China-Bhutan border).

China’s influence in the Indian sub-continent is rapidly rising. Beijing has long-standing close economic and military ties with Pakistan. But India is concerned that Beijing is intruding into its traditional sphere-of-influence. Since the 1990s, both countries have steadily rebuilt cooperative relations.  In 2008, China became India’s largest trading partner. In 2018, their bilateral trade hit a record US$95.5 billion. But India has a huge trade deficit of US$57 billion with China. This is the largest trade deficit that India has with any country.

Four Issues in China-India Ties

The first issue is trade. India has demanded greater access to China’s markets. Modi’s government faces strong domestic pressures.  The second issue is the battle over telecoms giant Huawei. India is one of the key countries where Huawei wants to establish its 5G technology. Huawei is already a major player in India’s smartphone market.  The third issue is over Kashmir. In August 2019, India-China tensions rose after New Delhi’s move to revoke the autonomy of Jammu and Kashmir. The two Asian rivals also have a border dispute in Ladakh, a strategic Buddhist-dominated region within Kashmir.  India has been a vocal critic of President Xi Jinping’s signature Belt and Road global infrastructure programme. This includes a key project through Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Fourth, border clashes. Besides Ladakh, India and China also have a decades-old dispute over Arunachal Pradesh, an Indian state bordering Tibet. But China still claims about 90,000 sq km of territory. India’s worries about Beijing’s Belt and Road project has boosted New Delhi’s support for the US-led Quadrilateral Security Dialogue to counter China’s perceived assertive expansionism.

 

New Era?

China and India are keen to take their ties to a higher level. One, President Xi said China is ready to reduce the US$57 billion trade deficit. China is India’s largest trading partner. India is China’s 11th largest trading partner. India’s economy is much smaller. China is a major investor in Indian energy and telecoms projects.  About 13,000 Indian students are studying in Chinese schools and universities. Two, India has concerns about the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). President Xi said he would look into India’s concerns. Three, China and India are prepared to enhance defence cooperation. Currently, their defence cooperation is limited to training and joint exercises. Four, both sides agreed to fight terrorism. President Xi called for building greater mutual strategic mutual trust.  He said that the only choice is for the “Chinese dragon” and “Indian elephant” to “dance together to serve their mutual interests”. 

The results of the summit show that China and India are very keen to fully normalise and boost mutually-beneficial cooperation. For China, improved ties with India would considerably strengthen its South Asian flank against the US containment policy.  India hopes that its improved ties with Beijing would lessen China’s strategic links with its arch-rival Pakistan. The normalisation of China-India relations clearly portends a new collaborative, prosperous Chindia era.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

KB Teo is a former diplomat with the Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs who had covered Southeast Asia, Egypt as well as the Eastern Europe/Soviet desks. He had also attended the UN General Assembly as part of the MFA delegation.