Myanmar’s Foreign Policy 2020

Myanmar’s Foreign Policy 2020

KB Teo

SYNOPSIS

Myanmar’s foreign policy is characterised by a strong nationalism.

A multiethnic state, Myanmar is developing close ties with its fellow ASEAN member states, China, and India.

COMMENTARY

China and India dominate Myanmar’s foreign policy. Sandwiched between two active Asian giants, Nay Pyi Taw will have to balance its relations carefully as India and China vie with each other for greater influence. Myanmar must avoid being sucked into conflict zones in their common areas of influence.

The Rakhine crisis is an area where Beijing and New Delhi compete. The exodus to Bangladesh now number 750,000 Rohingyas.  President Xi Jinping is increasing contact with Myanmar. Beijing has been actively facilitating peace talks and providing humanitarian aid. The Rakhine crisis presents an opportunity for China to test its diplomacy.

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India would not easily let go of its involvement in Rakhine. During his recent visit here, Indian Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar pledged to provide US$25 million for the next five years to Myanmar to develop the troubled province. India knows it has an edge over China in raising the education standard, healthcare and human resource training as well as in empowering women and nurturing children in the region.

As a member of ASEAN, Myanmar has not engaged ASEAN and its members as much as it could. Since its successful chairing of the group in 2014, Nay Pyi Taw has focused on overall integration, especially in economic and social matters, within the ASEAN Community. Without Nay Pyi Taw’s proper signal and direction, ASEAN will not be able to provide any tangible assistance to alleviate the crisis in Rakhine. Past ASEAN engagements in East Timor and Aceh could provide valuable lessons for Nay Pyi Taw to emulate. Indonesia asked its ASEAN friends to help out with peace-building and rehabilitation in both cases.

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There are two effective ways ASEAN can help. First, it can use bilateral initiatives. After the Rakhine crisis emerge with the 2012 exodus, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand lent a helping hand, mainly on long-term security assistance and in tackling root causes.  Since the August 2018 attacks, Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand have been friendlier and more responsive in helping Myanmar. They have dispatched humanitarian aid but have kept a low profile. Malaysia has been the most problematic because of its stand on the Rohingyas and its condemnation of Nay Pyi Taw. Responding to domestic pressure, the Najib government took a harsh position against Myanmar and severely criticised Nay Pyi Taw and its leader for failing to stem the tide of refugees flowing across the border. 

The second approach is for Myanmar to ask for help from ASEAN. State Counsellor and Foreign Minister Daw Aung San Suu Kyi can do that with the new ASEAN chair, Singapore, which has given priority to maintaining peace and stability in the region. 

Aung San Suu Kyi wants to keep ASEAN at a distance for fear of growing foreign interference.  She is also mindful not to upset the role of Myanmar’s powerful military. With ASEAN support, Myanmar can fend off further pressure from the global community. 

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China had poor relations with Myanmar until the late 1980s. Between 1967 and 1970, Burma broke relations with Beijing because of the latter's support for the Communist Party of Burma (CPB). Deng Xiaoping visited Yangon in 1978 and withdrew support for the long running insurgency of the Communist Party of Burma. In the early 1950s, Burma enjoyed a hot-and-cold relationship with China. 

Burma's U Nu lobbied for China's entry as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, but denounced the invasion of Tibet. China and Burma have had many border disputes, dating before the British annexation of Burma. The last border dispute culminated in 1956, when the People's Liberation Army invaded northern Burma, but were repulsed. A border agreement was reached in 1960 In the late 1960s.

Many Sino-Burmese were influenced by the Cultural Revolution in China. Shops were ransacked. Beijing heavily criticised the Burmese government. The anti-Chinese riots continued till the early 1970s. After 1986, China withdrew support for the CPB and began supplying the military junta with the majority of its arms in exchange for increased access to Burmese markets and a naval base on Coco Islands in the Andaman Sea. 

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China is supposed to have an intelligence gathering station on the Great Coco Island to monitor Indian naval activity. The influx of Chinese arms turned the tide in Myanmar against the ethnic insurgencies, many of which had relied indirectly on Chinese complicity. As a result, the military junta of Myanmar is highly reliant on Beijing for their power. In July 2019, UN ambassadors from 50 countries, including Myanmar, signed a joint letter to the UNHRC defending China's treatment of Uyghurs in the Xinjiang region. Beijing is highly appreciative of Myanmar’s support.

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KB Teo is a former diplomat with the Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He attended the UN General Assembly as part of the MFA delegation.